Projecting the Oakland Athletics 2016 Rotation

Jarrod ParkerThe Oakland Athletics Rotation will undoubtedly start with Sonny Gray on Opening Day. Behind him the likely contenders include some combination of Chris Bassitt, Jesse Hahn, Rich Hill and Kendall Graveman. Bassitt and Hahn looked really good when healthy last year with Bassitt compiling a 3.56 ERA, and Hahn a 3.35 ERA. Graveman was more up and down but had a 4.05 ERA in 21 starts. Rich Hill at 36 coming from the Red Sox had a very effective 4 starts with a 1.55 ERA but comes with same questions of health and durability that the youngsters have. While the foursome may not inspire confidence that this will be a set it and forget it rotation all have tremendous upside and teamed with Oakland’s new bullpen could be more effective then people envision. Throwing 5 or 6 good innings could be enough.

Given the inevitable injury and/or underperformance the A’s do have some options.

An interesting wild card is former Ace, Jarrod Parker whom is throwing off a mound after missing the last 2 years with injury. It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Parker who has just started adding changeups back to his repertoire.

In Mid-May, Henderson Alvarez, whom the A’s signed in the off-season will be healthy and should take one of the rotation spots from any underperforming youngster. Swing-starts should initially go to Felix Dubront.

The A’s top pitching prospect is 6 foot 5 left hander Sean Manaea. Manaea was 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA in 7 starts with 51 strikeouts and only 15 walks in 41 and 2/3 Innings Pitched at Double A Midland after being acquired in the Ben Zobrist trade. He will likely start the year in AAA but could be pushing for a spot in the rotation late in the year if there are injuries or underperformance.

ZIPS Projections for 2016 (no particular order)

IP K BB ERA
Sonny Gray 211.0 179 65 3.20
Chris Bassitt 124 96 45 3.91
Jesse Hahn 105 73 37 4.09
Kendall Graveman 141 88 43 4.33
Rich Hill 84 81 44 4.29
Henderson Alvarez 100 55 23 4.13
Felix Dubront 117 93 47 4.44
Jarrod Parker 93 62 32 4.55
Sean Manaea 113 102 46 4.21

 

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Davis adds Power but also Questions to the Outfield Situation

Coco Crisp

Before the acquisition of Khris Davis, the likely candidates for the A’s outfield included some mix of Mark Canha, Coco Crisp, Billy Burns, and Josh Reddick.

Coco Crisp, 36, was a non-factor last year and his injury history along with a neck injury that if it needed surgery would have required retirement makes him tough to project. Crisp whom years ago wasn’t happy the A’s pushed him out of Center Field has been the consummate professional saying:

“I’m comfortable with Khris Davis coming here,” Crisp told the Mercury News by phone Wednesday from his home in Southern California. “He’s a great athlete, and I’m happy we went and got him. This gets us closer to our goal, which is a green-and-gold ring. He’s going to help us.”

Crisp comes into spring feeling more healthy this year although his comments don’t inspire total confidence.

 “My neck is my neck, and for now it’s fine. My level of confidence is good.”

Now with Khris Davis targeted for LF, Crisp will have to either spell Davis, or Burns primarily with the chance he could also spell Butler at DH or Davis could shift to DH, and Crisp to LF in such a scenario. This all comes with the caveat of health and that Butler finds a way to right his swing for 2016.

For his part Crisp has indicated he is focused on coming to Mesa for Spring Training and having fun again in 2016.

How do you see the OF, and DH situation playing out for the A’s? Where will Mark Canha play? Will Butler rebound? How much time does Crisp get?buy cialis online overnight

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World Series Winning Odds For A’s and Giants

Online Sports Book Bovada has their futures bets odds for the Oakland Athletics and San Francisco Giants. Well we do not endorse gambling it’s interesting to look at the Spring Training odds for the local teams. As you can imagine expectations are high for the Giants and not so high for the A’s.

  • Giants +800
  • Athletics +7500

+800 means bet $100, to win $800, while +7500 reflects winning a whooping $7500 if you bet $100. There is only one team laying worse odds than the Giants because of high expectations to win the World Series, the Chicago Cubs who are +400.  Conversely only the Padres and Rockies come in at +10000 and +15000, longer odds than the Oakland A’s.

In summary, High expectation for the Giants, low expectations for the A’s. Not a big surprise.

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Oakland Athletics add Outfielder Khris Davis In Trade With Brewers

No sooner then I finished my off-season review, the Oakland Athletics added another bat, LF, Khris Davis. They traded minor league prospects, P Bubby Derby and C Jacob Nottingham. Nottingham was acquired in the Scott Kazmir trade and had a good bat, but was a couple of years away.  The A’s had to designated pitcher Sean Nolin to clear roster space. Davis comes with four seasons of control.

Khris Davis, 28, played 121 games in Left Field. He had 392 ABs and hit 27 homers, while compiling a .247/.323/.505 line of AVG/OBP/SLG for a 828 OPS.  He is not a well regarded outfielder.

Here are Khris Davis’ projected 2016 Numbers via ZIPS:

PA 2B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS
505 23 23 68 .251 .320 .484 804

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A’s Off-season Involves Bullpen, Chemistry Upgrades

  • Signed Henderson Alvarez (Starting Pitcher) to 1 year/$4.25 million ($1.6 million in additional incentives)
  • Traded 3B/IF Brett Lawrie for 2 minor leaguers
  • Signed John Axford (Relief Pitcher) to 2 year/10 million
  • Traded Evan Scribner for minor leaguer
  • A’s signed Ryan Madson (Relief Pitcher) to 3 years, 22 million
  • Acquired 1B Yonder Alonso and lefty reliever Mark Rzepczynski in exchange for Drew Pomeranz and Jose Torres
  • Acquired Jed Lowrie in exchange for a minor leaguer
  • Acquired Reliever Liam Hendriks in exchange for Jesse Chavez
  • Signed Rich Hill, Left Handed Starter

The A’s off-season begun with promoting Billy Beane to Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations and David Forst to General Manager.  The team went into the offseason with the key goal of trying to improve chemistry and bolster a bullpen that led to a 19-35 record in 1-run games and was 28th in MLB with a 4.63 ERA. The health of closer Sean Doolittle should be step one in a resurgence for that unit but adding Hendriks, Madson, and Axford can’t hurt as well.

Chemistry is something that Billy Beane has frequently said was created by winning. The A’s chemistry was so bad in 2015 that even for Beane it was a focus. The club brought back Mark Kotsay as a bench coach, traded for Jed Lowrie and jettisoned Brett Lawrie with chemistry in mind.

2015 was a disappointing year after the A’s came so close in recent years. It stung for Oakland fans watching Josh Donaldson and Yoenis Cespedes lead their clubs deep in the playoffs. Oakland goes into 2016 with a much improved minor league system (Top 10 Prospect List) that should have reinforcements on the way. The team also made a number of moves that should make the A’s more watchable, at least in 2016.

ZIPS 2016 Projections for Oakland Athletics Newcomers:

For those unfamiliar an ERA- of 100 is average, and below that is good. 86 is 14 percent better than average, and 110 would be 10 percent above average. ZIPS likes Madison and Hendricks quite a bit but is far less optimistic on Hill, Alvarez and Axford.

 ERA ERA-
Rich Hill 4.29 110
Henderson Alvarez 4.13 106
John Axford 4.12 106
Ryan Madison 3.34 86
Liam Hendricks 2.88 74
AVG OBP SLG OPS
Jed Lowrie 247 315 384 699
Yonder Alonso 268 333 375 708

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Offseason Roundup: Giants Spent $326 Million To Boost Even Year Chances

The Giants rung up the cash register for $326 million in the off-season on four players to boost their even year resurgence bid. The team brought in 3 outsiders and locked in a familiar fan favorite in Brandon Crawford.

Here is a breakdown, along with their 2016 ZIPS Projection:

  • Jeff Samardzija (Pitcher) 5 year, $90 million contract
    • Projection: 196 IP 44 BB 180K 3.31 ERA
  • Johnny Cueto (Pitcher) 6 years, $130 million contract
    • Projection: 207 IP 50 BB 178K 2.87 ERA
  • Brandon Crawford (Infielder) 6 years, $75 million contract
    • Projection: 249 AVG/314 SLG/408 OBP 722 OPS
  • Denard Span (Outfielder) 3 years, $31 million contract
    • Projection: 280 AVG/333 SLG/387 OBP 720 OPS

2015 was a trying season for the Giants but with the team’s recent success fans can’t be too disappointed. Cueto and Samardzija should help boost a starting staff that was plagued by injury in 2015. The 2016 Giants look to be formable with these additions. How do you think 2016 will shake out?generic cialis description

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Is a Josh Reddick Extension in the Cards?

John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group reports on Twitter that Josh Reddick is ready to talk extension. While many have speculated that the A’s would trade Reddick who only has one more year on his contract, Billy Beane has mentioned numerous times that Reddick was a candidate for an extension.

Given the A’s nature it is a comment that hasn’t struck a chord as serious with many. Reddick’s camp has been quiet but it’s possible a tough outfield market that has seen Yoenis Cespedes just sign for far less then he expected has swayed him. Reddick is coming off 2 strong years in a row including a .272/.333/.449 2015 campaign. He comes with strong defense in RF led by a strong arm. Fangraphs had him worth 3 WAR last year.

It is unknown what parameters the A’s or Reddick’s camp would be seeking for a deal.

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A’s Top 10 Prospects Released by Baseball America

Oakland A's Top Prospects 2016

The full read is available from Baseball America, but they released the Oakland Athletics 2016 Top Prospects. Notably the top is Franklin Barreto acquired in the Josh Donaldson trade, Sean Manaea in the Ben Zobrist trade, and Matt Chapman a player the A’s drafted.  There’s been some talk of Barreto playing CF although he is listed as a SS. Baseball America touts that help is on the way with this group of prospects.

Some quick stats

  • Barreto at age 19 had a 302/339/500 line with a 839 OPS including 22 doubles, 3 triples and 13 homers at Single A Stockton.
  • Manaea at age 23 had 7 starts with Double A Midland with 51 strikeouts and 15 walks in 42 2/3 innings. He had a 1.90 ERA
  • Matt Chapman at age 22 in an injury shortened season in Stockton (A+) had 21 doubles, and 23 homers along with a 250/345/566 slash line equating to a 911 ops.
  • Renato Nunez  at age 22, made it up to Double A Midland and had 23 doubles and 18 homers along with a 278/333/480 line which gave him a 813 OPS

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Beane A’s still fending off advances for Sonny Gray; Continue Looking to Improve Club

Billy Beane appeared on MLB Network Radio with Jim Bowden to discuss offseason rumors. Beane noted that the A’s have “resisted some pretty aggressive suitors” for starting pitcher Sonny Gray. Beane has stated repeatedly that they are not interested in trading Gray and reiterated that saying, “We’ve been adamant with teams that we want to hang on to Gray.”

He also noted that the A’s are still trying to improve the club via trade and that it’s possible a free agent or two could slip through the cracks. This is in-line with our previous thinking that the A’s have some money to play around with.generic cialis not working